Από τις χώρες που βρίσκονται σε πρόγραμμα βοήθειας, μόνο η Ιρλανδία θα μπορέσει να το εγκαταλείψει και αυτή μερικώς. Το μέλλον της Πορτογαλίας διαγράφεται ταυτόσημο με εκείνο της Ελλάδας πέρυσι (ανάγκη για δεύτερο πακέτο βοήθειας).
Για την Ελλάδα, το ΔΝΤ προέβλεψε χρηματοδοτικό κενό ύψους €4,4 δις για το 2014 και €6,5 δις για το 2015, που πρέπει να καλύψουν οι Ευρωπαίοι. Το ελληνικό χρέος εξακολουθεί να είναι πολύ υψηλό και θα απαιτηθεί ελάφρυνσή του (της τάξης του 4% του ΑΕΠ), παρά τα αυστηρά μέτρα λιτότητας, ώστε το χρέος να φτάσει στο 124% έως το 2020.
Τα έσοδα από τις ιδιωτικοποιήσεις υπολείπονται κατά €1 δις για εφέτος και θα πρέπει να υπάρξει παραγραφή χρέους. Η πραγματικότητα θα γίνει πιο εμφανής μετά τις γερμανικές εκλογές.
Read more: http://mignatiou.com
9/8/13
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ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ:
- Europe’s bail-out programmes ...What Angela isn’t saying...
AN ORCHESTRATED hush has descended over the euro area as Angela Merkel, the German chancellor who conducts its troubled band of 17 states, campaigns for a third term in the election on September 22nd. The calm also stems from signs that the euro-zone economy may gradually be emerging from recession. But discord will reappear after the poll as it becomes clear that Europe’s bail-out programmes won’t be unwound harmoniously and that more big bills are on their way.
Of the first three rescued euro-zone countries—Greece in the spring of 2010, Ireland at the end of that year and Portugal in mid-2011—only one should be able to leave its bail-out programme as planned. Helped by its resilient economy, Ireland, whose rescue amounted to €67.5 billion ($90 billion), looks set to bow out at the end of this year. In practice, however, it will be only a partial departure......http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21583257-euro-zone-rescues-have-left-sovereign-debt-too-high-be-sustainable-what-angela
10/8/13
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Germany Sleeps on a Volcano...
ReplyDeleteAngela Merkel's government is forcing Southern Europe to undertake profound reforms while at the same time denying its own responsibility for the consequences of its crisis policies. Germany is risking a historic failure with its shortsighted wrangling.
Under the imploring headline "We Germans Don't Want a German Europe," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble recently denied in a newspaper essay published simultaneously in Great Britain, France, Poland, Italy and Spain that Germany seeks a political leadership role in the European Union. Schäuble who, along with Labor Minister Ursula von der Leyen, is the only remaining member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet who can be characterized as a "European" in the West German mold, speaks from conviction. He is anything but a revisionist seeking to reverse Germany's integration into Europe, thereby destroying the basis for the stability of the postwar order. He is familiar with the problem that Germans must fear should it ever return.
After the founding of the German Empire in 1871, Germany assumed a calamitous and partly hegemonic position, which, in the words of the deceased historian Ludwig Dehios, was "too weak to dominate the Continent but too strong to bring itself into line." This too helped pave the way for the disasters of the 20th century. Thanks to successful postwar European unification, both a divided Germany and a united Germany were prevented from stumbling into the same, old dilemma. It is clearly in Germany's interest that this state of affairs remains the same. But hasn't the situation changed?
Schäuble is reacting to a current threat. He is the one who is pushing through Merkel's stubborn course in Brussels and who can feel the cracks that could lead to the breakup of Europe's core. He is the one who, when meeting with finance ministers from the European Monetary Union, encounters the resistance of the "recipient countries" whenever he blocks renewed attempts to bring about a change in policy. The obstruction of a banking union, which would mutualize the costs associated with winding down ailing banks, is only the most recent example.....http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/juergen-habermas-merkel-needs-to-confront-real-european-reform-a-915244.html
10/8/13