Ceasefire in Ukraine under ‘continuous, serious strain,’ UN official warns

UN, 12 November 2014 – Prevailing hostilities in Ukraine in recent days are putting the ceasefire agreed to in September under “continuous and serious strain,” a senior United Nations political official told the Security Council today, warning against the possibility of a return to full-scale fighting despite prospects of hope offered by recent parliamentary elections.

“The promise of renewal, and of renewed, energy towards solving Ukraine’s problems embodied in the recent parliamentary elections, threatens to be overshadowed by the worsening security situation in the east of the country,” said Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen, Assistant Secretary-General ad interim for UN Political Affairs, in his briefing to the Council.
“Nonetheless, the prospect that a new, reform-oriented ruling coalition will be formed, empowering it to move the country closer to a path of peace and stability, provides the avenue for all to support Ukraine out of this debilitating conflict,” he added.
Focusing his comments on political developments in Ukraine and the latest developments related to the conflict in the east of the country, Mr. Toyberg-Frandzen said that the early parliamentary elections held on 26 October were conducted in a manner that observers for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) welcomed as “largely upholding democratic commitments,” although there was no voting in Crimea or parts of Donbas under rebel control.
Noting that discussions are under way for the formation of Government, Mr. Toyberg-Frandzen expressed hope that the leading coalition will be bound to the “rapid implementation of the comprehensive political, legal and economic reforms to which the Ukrainian authorities have committed themselves.”
The ability of the leading coalition to “work constructively alongside the Opposition Bloc” will also be key for the unity and stability of Ukraine, he stressed, expressing hope that a comprehensive national dialogue to rebuild cohesion and address all outstanding critical national issues would begin soon.
Continuing, he said that as of 3 November, hostilities in the east reignited with the potential to further undermine the Minsk agreements. Currently, the security situation in Donetsk and Lugansk “almost rivals” the period immediately preceding the ceasefire agreement of 5 September, he stressed.
“With the Minsk agreements in question, and uncertainty over how much strain the ceasefire can withstand, we are deeply concerned over the possibility of a return to full-scale fighting,” he said.
Alternatively, the conflict may “simmer this way for months, with sporadic, low-level battles, marked by periods of increased hostilities and further casualties,” Mr. Toyberg-Frandzen said. While either scenario would be catastrophic for Ukraine, a third prospect is that of a “frozen” or protracted conflict, which would entrench the current status quo in south-eastern Ukraine for years or even decades to come, he said.
This past weekend, particularly on the night of 9 November, hostilities were reported to be at their worst in months, with a heavy exchange of artillery shelling in and around Donetsk. A similar level of fighting was reported today, Mr. Toyberg-Frandzen said. Lives continued to be lost daily, including of two schoolchildren as a result of shelling in Donetsk on 5 November.
This upsurge in fighting comes amid regular reports from the OSCE of an influx of large convoys of heavy weapons, tanks and troops flowing into rebel-held areas, he continued. In this connection, there is “no doubt that a failure to secure the Russian-Ukrainian border is a factor that continues to impede the path to peace,” he said.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate in parts of Donbas. With the onset of harsh winter conditions, the number of internally displaced persons is expected to increase. If there is a return to full-scale fighting, the numbers could grow exponentially, he warned........................http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=49322#.VGQ7BGfm75M
12/11/14
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